International Affairs · Analysis

Miliband Bets Britain's Israel Policy on the Pakistani Vote

A settlement import ban drew a muted Trump and an unsurprisingly furious Israel, and its clearest audience was the Muslim voters Labour lost over Gaza in 2024.

Ed Miliband told the House of Commons on 8 September 2026 that Britain now accepts the International Court of Justice's finding that Israel's occupation of the West Bank is unlawful. The Foreign Secretary announced an import ban on goods from Israeli settlements, due to take effect within six to nine months, alongside restrictions on companies and individuals servicing the settlements and a ban on advertising them for sale in the UK. Describing himself as "a proud British Jew," he said the Israeli government had turned "a blind eye to ethnic cleansing" by settlers, whose numbers have grown from roughly 270,000 in the 1990s to about 770,000 today. He added that "war crimes appear to have been committed" in Gaza and that the atrocities of 7 October 2023 "cannot justify what has happened" since.

Twelve countries joined Britain in some form of coordinated action. Israel's response was immediate: the government closed the UK consulate in East Jerusalem and expelled British diplomats. The Israeli embassy in London said the sanctions would "create a fertile ground for antisemitism to flourish" and foster "an atmosphere for violence against Jews." Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis and the Board of Deputies of British Jews had warned before the announcement that the measures would "disproportionately affect British Jews" without altering Israeli policy. Reform UK's Richard Tice stated that the government was "kowtowing to the anti-Semites in the Labour Party" and to Islamists, and warned that any rise in attacks on British Jews would leave "blood on the hands of the Foreign Secretary."

Washington's response was more equivocal than the domestic fallout in London, and increasingly less unexpected. Donald Trump had been briefed in advance and, according to officials cited by the Times of Israel and Axios, did not ask Prime Minister Andy Burnham to hold off or change course. Secretary of State Marco Rubio declined to condemn the move outright, saying the administration had been "made aware" of the decision and shared some of the underlying concerns about the Netanyahu government's West Bank policy, while disagreeing with sanctions as the remedy. The sharpest American reaction came instead from US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, who called the measures "discrimination against the Jewish people" and warned of repercussions. The White House distanced itself from Huckabee's remarks, noting they had not been coordinated with either the White House or the State Department. The split left Trump's own position looking closer to acquiescence than confrontation, a marked contrast with the tone of Huckabee and some congressional allies of Israel.

The Israeli embassy's comes about in view on a real rise in antisemitic attacks, often physically violent. The Community Security Trust recorded 4,103 antisemitic incidents across the UK in 2023, the highest annual total in its history and a 147% rise on the 1,662 recorded in 2022; 2,699 of those, 66% of the year's total, occurred on or after 7 October, with the first logged at 12:55pm that very day. Greater London accounted for 2,410 incidents in 2023, up 161% on 923 the year before, concentrated in Barnet (864), Westminster (323, a 389% rise) and Hackney (220). Attacks on Jewish individuals followed the same pattern: three Israeli tourists were surrounded and beaten in Leicester Square on 21 January 2024 after being heard speaking Hebrew, and in April 2026 a man who had already stabbed a Muslim acquaintance in Southwark travelled to Golders Green and stabbed two Jewish men within minutes of each other. This attack came after a fatal assault on Manchester's Heaton Park synagogue in October 2025 and a run of arson attacks on Jewish institutions that March and April. A study by the Intra-Communal Professorial Group found rates of antisemitic abuse on university campuses rising by up to 34 percentage points after 7 October, with more than half of Jewish students surveyed reporting fear of being on campus and three-quarters uncomfortable being visibly Jewish, and concluded there was "compelling evidence that some universities are failing in their responsibility to adequately safeguard Jewish students."

Antisemitic incidents recorded in the UK — Community Security Trust annual totals, nationwide against Greater London — 2022: 1,662,923; 2023: 4,103,2,410 — Source: Community Security Trust. Of the 4,103 incidents recorded in 2023, 2,699 — 66% of the year's total — were logged on or after 7 October, the first at 12:55pm that day. Within London the 2023 total was concentrated in Barnet (864), Westminster (323, a rise of 389%) and Hackney (220).

Britain has churned through seven prime ministers in ten years by mid-2026, a pace widely described in coverage as a "decade of chaos" and a symptom of both parties' inability to hold a leader for a full term. Burnham's arrival compounded the surprise: for years blocked from returning to Westminster and serving instead as Greater Manchester's mayor, he only secured a Commons seat by winning the Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026, weeks before taking the top job, a manoeuvre that left commentators describing his elevation as improvised rather than the product of a normal succession. Burnham became Prime Minister in July 2026, succeeding Keir Starmer after a leadership contest triggered in large part by Labour's collapse among Muslim voters over Gaza. On 11 October 2023, four days after the Hamas attack, Starmer told LBC that Israel "has the right" to cut off power and water to Gaza, qualifying the remark a fortnight later by saying he had not meant Israel could withhold "water, food, fuel or medicines," a walk-back that read to many as damage control rather than correction on stance. He resisted calling for a ceasefire for months afterward, calling instead for “humanitarian pauses," even as more than 250 Muslim Labour councillors, mostly of Pakistani origin, wrote to him in November 2023 demanding he shift position. Party discipline compounded and in the Commons vote of 15 November 2023 on an SNP ceasefire motion, more than 50 Labour MPs defied the frontbench to vote for it, including several shadow ministers who then resigned their posts. Starmer did not call explicitly for a ceasefire until February 2024, some four months after the war began, by which point independent and pro-Gaza candidates were already organising in seats with large Muslim electorates. In the 21 parliamentary seats where Muslims make up more than 30% of the population, Labour's vote fell from an average of 65% in 2019 to 36% in 2024, a drop of 29 percentage points, and turnout in those seats fell 11.2 points more than the national average. Labour lost more than 300,000 votes across those seats and another 300,000 across a further 43 seats with a Muslim population of 15% to 30%, together accounting for more than half the national fall in the Labour vote between the two elections. Independent candidates running on Gaza took important seats including Leicester South, thus unseating the shadow health secretary. Bradford West recorded the steepest single swing against Labour, a fall of 44.5% without changing hands only because the anti-Labour vote split between rivals.

Labour's vote where the Muslim electorate is largest — Average share of the vote, 2019 general election against 2024 — 21 seats where Muslims are over 30% of the population: 65%,36% — Figures as cited in the text. Turnout in these seats fell 11.2 points further than the national average. Bradford West recorded the steepest single fall, 44.5%, holding only because the anti-Labour vote split between rivals. Across these 21 seats and a further 43 with a Muslim population of 15% to 30%, Labour lost more than 600,000 votes — over half the national fall between the two elections.

British Pakistanis, at 1.66 million people and 2.5% of the population according to the 2021 census, are the largest single ethnic group within that electorate, and 92.6% of them identify as Muslim. A Savanta poll around the 2024 election found 63% of Muslim voters still backing Labour against 12% for the Conservatives, but the same polling noted Labour had lost close to a quarter of its 2019 Muslim support to smaller parties and independents. Weeks into Burnham's premiership, the Labour Muslim Network began surveying that same electorate on its attitude to the new leadership, its priority issues and its willingness to return to Labour, with results expected within weeks of the survey's August launch. Burnham has said Labour "didn't get it right" on Gaza, though he has previously stopped short of endorsing an anti-Israel stance.

Seen against that backdrop, the settlement ban functions as a signal aimed well beyond the West Bank as an attempt to recover votes in seats Labour cannot win a majority without. It comes at a moment when Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents are both drawing on the same disaffected coalition from opposite directions. Sir Edward Leigh's decision to back the measures from the Conservative benches, framing them in terms of "freedom, for morality, and justice," gave Burnham's government useful cover, since polling cited by commentators suggested a plurality of voters across party lines supported a boycott of settlement goods regardless of the electoral calculation behind it.

Eleven other countries joined Britain in the 8 September announcement: France, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar ordered the closure of the British consulate in Jerusalem and called Miliband's statement "outrageous lies," while Israel separately barred entry to 12 British national including Jeremy Corbyn, Zarah Sultana and Diane Abbott. The joint statement from the 12 governments said Israel's actions in the West Bank were "undermining the possibility of a two-State solution."

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